Background: Epidemiological evidence on the association between tea consumption and the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) is inconsistent. This study prospectively investigated whether green tea drinking affects the risk of T2D.

Methods: This study included participants from the Shanghai Women's Health Study (N = 67 058) and the Shanghai Men's Health Study (N = 52 315) without diabetes at study enrolment. Details of tea consumption, including types and amounts, were collected at the baseline and follow-up survey. Incident T2D was identified through follow-up surveys. Plasma level of caffeine metabolite was measured in a nested case-control study involving 592 diabetes case-control pairs. Cox regression analysis, with tea drinking as a time-dependent variable and covariates adjusted for by a propensity score, was applied to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for T2D risk. Logistic regression analysis was applied to evaluate the association between caffeine metabolites and T2D risk.

Results: Current green tea drinkers had an increased risk of T2D compared with non-current drinkers [HR = 1.20 (95% CI = 1.14-1.27)], and a dose-response relationship was observed for duration of drinking tea and the amount of tea consumed [P for trend <0.001]. The increased risk associated with green tea drinking was observed in both women and men, across the entire period of follow-up, with HR (95% CI) of 1.08 (0.97-1.19) within 5 years of follow-up, 1.22 (1.12-1.32) during the period of 5-10 years of follow-up and 1.16 (1.03-1.30) after 10 years of follow-up. This association did not vary significantly by body mass index, waist-to-hip circumference ratio or smoking status. Plasma level of caffeine was also associated with increased diabetes risk (P = 0.03), confirming the results based on self-reported tea drinking.

Conclusions: Green tea drinking was associated with an increased risk of T2D in Chinese adults. The mechanisms underlying the association need to be elucidated.